Module 08 · 4-panel stress dashboard
Eurodollar Black Box
How big is the offshore dollar market — and where does stress show up first?
On US borrowers
$8.04T
Q ending Jul 1, 2025
On China borrowers
$0.25T
BIS LBS · USD
Rest-of-world
$12.15T
World residual (LBS)
FRA-OIS spread
+13bp
3M · daily
US (LBS)China (LBS)Rest-of-world (residual)
Apr 23, 2026
Data table (for screen readers and reference)
Showing the most recent 200 rows of 1,219 total. See the methodology page for the full underlying series.
| Date | Drawdown ($T) |
|---|---|
| 2022-06-29 | 0.000 |
| 2022-07-06 | 0.000 |
| 2022-07-13 | 0.000 |
| 2022-07-20 | 0.000 |
| 2022-07-27 | 0.000 |
| 2022-08-03 | 0.000 |
| 2022-08-10 | 0.000 |
| 2022-08-17 | 0.000 |
| 2022-08-24 | 0.000 |
| 2022-08-31 | 0.000 |
| 2022-09-07 | 0.000 |
| 2022-09-14 | 0.000 |
| 2022-09-21 | 0.000 |
| 2022-09-28 | 0.000 |
| 2022-10-05 | 0.000 |
| 2022-10-12 | 0.003 |
| 2022-10-19 | 0.006 |
| 2022-10-26 | 0.011 |
| 2022-11-02 | 0.000 |
| 2022-11-09 | 0.000 |
| 2022-11-16 | 0.000 |
| 2022-11-23 | 0.000 |
| 2022-11-30 | 0.000 |
| 2022-12-07 | 0.000 |
| 2022-12-14 | 0.000 |
| 2022-12-21 | 0.000 |
| 2022-12-28 | 0.000 |
| 2023-01-04 | 0.000 |
| 2023-01-11 | 0.000 |
| 2023-01-18 | 0.000 |
| 2023-01-25 | 0.000 |
| 2023-02-01 | 0.000 |
| 2023-02-08 | 0.000 |
| 2023-02-15 | 0.000 |
| 2023-02-22 | 0.000 |
| 2023-03-01 | 0.000 |
| 2023-03-08 | 0.000 |
| 2023-03-15 | 0.000 |
| 2023-03-22 | 0.001 |
| 2023-03-29 | 0.001 |
| 2023-04-05 | 0.000 |
| 2023-04-12 | 0.000 |
| 2023-04-19 | 0.000 |
| 2023-04-26 | 0.000 |
| 2023-05-03 | 0.000 |
| 2023-05-10 | 0.000 |
| 2023-05-17 | 0.000 |
| 2023-05-24 | 0.000 |
| 2023-05-31 | 0.000 |
| 2023-06-07 | 0.000 |
| 2023-06-14 | 0.000 |
| 2023-06-21 | 0.000 |
| 2023-06-28 | 0.000 |
| 2023-07-05 | 0.000 |
| 2023-07-12 | 0.000 |
| 2023-07-19 | 0.000 |
| 2023-07-26 | 0.000 |
| 2023-08-02 | 0.000 |
| 2023-08-09 | 0.000 |
| 2023-08-16 | 0.000 |
| 2023-08-23 | 0.000 |
| 2023-08-30 | 0.000 |
| 2023-09-06 | 0.000 |
| 2023-09-13 | 0.000 |
| 2023-09-20 | 0.000 |
| 2023-09-27 | 0.000 |
| 2023-10-04 | 0.000 |
| 2023-10-11 | 0.000 |
| 2023-10-18 | 0.000 |
| 2023-10-25 | 0.000 |
| 2023-11-01 | 0.000 |
| 2023-11-08 | 0.000 |
| 2023-11-15 | 0.000 |
| 2023-11-22 | 0.000 |
| 2023-11-29 | 0.000 |
| 2023-12-06 | 0.000 |
| 2023-12-13 | 0.000 |
| 2023-12-20 | 0.000 |
| 2023-12-27 | 0.001 |
| 2024-01-03 | 0.001 |
| 2024-01-10 | 0.000 |
| 2024-01-17 | 0.000 |
| 2024-01-24 | 0.000 |
| 2024-01-31 | 0.000 |
| 2024-02-07 | 0.000 |
| 2024-02-14 | 0.000 |
| 2024-02-21 | 0.000 |
| 2024-02-28 | 0.000 |
| 2024-03-06 | 0.000 |
| 2024-03-13 | 0.000 |
| 2024-03-20 | 0.000 |
| 2024-03-27 | 0.000 |
| 2024-04-03 | 0.000 |
| 2024-04-10 | 0.000 |
| 2024-04-17 | 0.000 |
| 2024-04-24 | 0.000 |
| 2024-05-01 | 0.000 |
| 2024-05-08 | 0.000 |
| 2024-05-15 | 0.000 |
| 2024-05-22 | 0.000 |
| 2024-05-29 | 0.000 |
| 2024-06-05 | 0.000 |
| 2024-06-12 | 0.000 |
| 2024-06-19 | 0.000 |
| 2024-06-26 | 0.000 |
| 2024-07-03 | 0.000 |
| 2024-07-10 | 0.000 |
| 2024-07-17 | 0.000 |
| 2024-07-24 | 0.000 |
| 2024-07-31 | 0.000 |
| 2024-08-07 | 0.000 |
| 2024-08-14 | 0.000 |
| 2024-08-21 | 0.000 |
| 2024-08-28 | 0.000 |
| 2024-09-04 | 0.000 |
| 2024-09-11 | 0.000 |
| 2024-09-18 | 0.000 |
| 2024-09-25 | 0.000 |
| 2024-10-02 | 0.000 |
| 2024-10-09 | 0.000 |
| 2024-10-16 | 0.000 |
| 2024-10-23 | 0.000 |
| 2024-10-30 | 0.000 |
| 2024-11-06 | 0.000 |
| 2024-11-13 | 0.000 |
| 2024-11-20 | 0.000 |
| 2024-11-27 | 0.000 |
| 2024-12-04 | 0.000 |
| 2024-12-11 | 0.000 |
| 2024-12-18 | 0.000 |
| 2024-12-25 | 0.001 |
| 2025-01-01 | 0.001 |
| 2025-01-08 | 0.001 |
| 2025-01-15 | 0.000 |
| 2025-01-22 | 0.000 |
| 2025-01-29 | 0.000 |
| 2025-02-05 | 0.000 |
| 2025-02-12 | 0.000 |
| 2025-02-19 | 0.000 |
| 2025-02-26 | 0.000 |
| 2025-03-05 | 0.000 |
| 2025-03-12 | 0.000 |
| 2025-03-19 | 0.000 |
| 2025-03-26 | 0.000 |
| 2025-04-02 | 0.000 |
| 2025-04-09 | 0.000 |
| 2025-04-16 | 0.000 |
| 2025-04-23 | 0.000 |
| 2025-04-30 | 0.000 |
| 2025-05-07 | 0.000 |
| 2025-05-14 | 0.000 |
| 2025-05-21 | 0.000 |
| 2025-05-28 | 0.000 |
| 2025-06-04 | 0.000 |
| 2025-06-11 | 0.000 |
| 2025-06-18 | 0.000 |
| 2025-06-25 | 0.000 |
| 2025-07-02 | 0.000 |
| 2025-07-09 | 0.000 |
| 2025-07-16 | 0.000 |
| 2025-07-23 | 0.000 |
| 2025-07-30 | 0.000 |
| 2025-08-06 | 0.000 |
| 2025-08-13 | 0.000 |
| 2025-08-20 | 0.000 |
| 2025-08-27 | 0.000 |
| 2025-09-03 | 0.000 |
| 2025-09-10 | 0.000 |
| 2025-09-17 | 0.000 |
| 2025-09-24 | 0.000 |
| 2025-10-01 | 0.000 |
| 2025-10-08 | 0.000 |
| 2025-10-15 | 0.000 |
| 2025-10-22 | 0.000 |
| 2025-10-29 | 0.000 |
| 2025-11-05 | 0.000 |
| 2025-11-12 | 0.000 |
| 2025-11-19 | 0.000 |
| 2025-11-26 | 0.000 |
| 2025-12-03 | 0.000 |
| 2025-12-10 | 0.000 |
| 2025-12-17 | 0.000 |
| 2025-12-24 | 0.000 |
| 2025-12-31 | 0.000 |
| 2026-01-07 | 0.000 |
| 2026-01-14 | 0.000 |
| 2026-01-21 | 0.000 |
| 2026-01-28 | 0.000 |
| 2026-02-04 | 0.000 |
| 2026-02-11 | 0.000 |
| 2026-02-18 | 0.000 |
| 2026-02-25 | 0.000 |
| 2026-03-04 | 0.000 |
| 2026-03-11 | 0.000 |
| 2026-03-18 | 0.000 |
| 2026-03-25 | 0.000 |
| 2026-04-01 | 0.000 |
| 2026-04-08 | 0.000 |
| 2026-04-15 | 0.000 |
| 2026-04-22 | 0.000 |
The hypothesis
The offshore dollar market — every USD-denominated claim on a balance sheet outside the United States — is several times the size of the Federal Reserve's domestic balance sheet, has no single lender of last resort, and has historically been where dollar stress shows up first. Sep 2019 (the SOFR repo blowup) and Mar 2020 (the pandemic dollar shortage) both detonated here days before they hit equity screens; Sep 2022 (UK gilt / LDI) and Mar 2023 (SVB / Credit Suisse) both started as funding events long before they were "credit" events.
This dashboard is built so that when funding stress spikes again, the four canonical canaries — cross-border claims by sector, FRA-OIS, cross-currency basis, and Fed swap-line drawdowns — sit on one shared time axis with the relevant stress events pinned across all four panels.
The four stress moments to study
- Sep 2019 — Repo blowup. SOFR jumps to 5.25% on a Monday morning. Cause: corporate tax payments + Treasury settlement drained reserves below the ample-floor threshold. Foreshadowed by widening basis swaps in the weeks before.
- Mar 2020 — Dollar shortage. Cross-currency basis collapses to historic lows; Fed reopens swap lines with 14 central banks, peaking at $449B drawn. FRA-OIS rips to crisis-era levels. Equity bottom on Mar 23.
- Sep 2022 — UK gilt / LDI. BoE intervenes Sep 28. Cross-border USD claims on UK counterparties had been falling all year — but the dollar-funding stress was visible in basis swaps from mid-September.
- Mar 2023 — SVB / Credit Suisse. Domestic deposit run, but the offshore tell was real: standing FX swap lines reactivated to daily on Mar 19. Within a week the dollar stress fully bled into European CDS spreads.
Sources
| Panel | Source | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 1a · By counterparty | Source: BIS LBS (Locational Banking Statistics). USD cross-border bank claims by counterparty country — US, China, and Rest-of-world (world residual). Series:bis_lbs_xb_claims_usd_world · bis_lbs_xb_claims_usd_us · bis_lbs_xb_claims_usd_cn | ingested · 63 quarters |
| 1b · By sector | Source: BIS LBS by counterparty sector. Same LBS file split on the L_CP_SECTOR dimension — banks (B), non-banks (N), and general government (K) — so the three bands sum to the world LBS total. The non-bank band is plotted as N − K to keep government/official cleanly separated. Series:bis_lbs_xb_claims_usd_world_banks · bis_lbs_xb_claims_usd_world_nonbanks · bis_lbs_xb_claims_usd_world_official (US/CN counterparty buckets ingested too for future drill-downs). | awaiting first ingest |
| 1c · GLI overlay | Source: BIS GLI (Global Liquidity Indicators). USD credit to non-bank borrowers in the US and China — drawn as a dashed ink overlay so readers can compare the LBS-derived non-bank band against the GLI series' broader scope (LBS plus international debt securities). Series:bis_gli_usd_us + bis_gli_usd_cn | ingested · overlay |
| 2 · FRA-OIS spliced | Pre-2022: 3M LIBOR − 3M T-bill via Source: FRED TEDRATE (the canonical FRA-OIS proxy, discontinued Jan 2022 with LIBOR retirement). Covers Sep '19 repo (~60bp) and Mar '20 dollar shortage (~142bp peak). Post-2022: 3M Financial Commercial Paper rate Source: FRED DCPF3M minus 3M T-bill yield Source: FRED DTB3 — a published-data continuation that captures bank-funding-vs-government-funding stress without requiring a SOFR-futures vendor feed. | ingested · 1986–present |
| 3 · Cross-currency basis | 3-month USDJPY and EURUSD cross-currency basis swaps — requires a market-data feed (Bloomberg / Refinitiv). There is no public free source; the panel is wired so it auto-lights once a vendor adapter lands. | pending vendor feed |
| 4 · Fed swap-line drawdowns | Central-bank liquidity swaps outstanding via Source: FRED SWPT (weekly H.4.1 line). Peaked at $449B on Mar 25 2020. | ingested · weekly |
Currently rendering 3 of 4 panels with live data. The chart structure, shared crosshair, share-export, and annotations all activate the remaining panels automatically once the corresponding ingest adapters land.
Read next
- Yen Carry Live → — the single biggest USD-funding-stress trade in the world. Watch August 2024 to see how a single FX move can shake global dollar funding in 72 hours.
- Trade Flows Globe → — where the offshore dollar pool gets created in the first place: structural USD-positive trade balances by country.
- Why the next 10 years are structurally impossible → — the long-form essay that frames the offshore dollar market as the system's most under-discussed fragility.