Module 04 · 3-panel + index

Yen Carry Live

Three synced panels — rate spread, USDJPY, and CFTC speculative JPY net position — plus a live Carry Pressure Index.

Source: FRED + CFTC COT·As of Apr 17, 2026

Live carry pressure

25/ 100+4.6 30d

Quiet

As of Apr 17, 2026

Click any gold pin — or any copper BoJ tick on the date axis — to zoom into that event (Lehman, COVID, NIRP, the Aug-2024 hike…).

BoJ policy moves

Apr 17, 2026

USD−JPY rate spread (DFF − BoJ overnight call rate), 2y UST, USD/JPY, and CFTC speculative JPY net position. Carry Pressure Index normalised 0–100 across the visible window.

Three synced panels (DFF − BoJ rate spread, USDJPY, CFTC speculative JPY net) plus a live 0–100 Carry Pressure Index. As of April 17, 2026.

Data table (for screen readers and reference)

Showing the most recent 200 rows of 1,390 total. See the methodology page for the full underlying series.

Yen Carry Live — daily readings as of 2026-04-17.Spread = DFF − BoJ overnight call rate, in %; DFF/BoJ/DGS2 in %; USDJPY in yen per dollar; CFTC JPY net in contracts; Carry Pressure Index 0..100.
Date	Spread (%)	DFF (%)	BoJ rate (%)	DGS2 (%)	USD/JPY	CFTC JPY net	Carry index
2025-09-30	3.59	4.09	0.50	3.60	147.97	61,465	0.0
2025-10-01	3.59	4.09	0.50	3.55	147.16	61,465	0.0
2025-10-02	3.59	4.09	0.50	3.55	147.35	61,465	0.0
2025-10-03	3.59	4.09	0.50	3.58	147.33	61,465	0.0
2025-10-04	3.59	4.09	0.50	3.58	147.33	61,465	0.0
2025-10-05	3.59	4.09	0.50	3.58	147.33	61,465	0.0
2025-10-06	3.59	4.09	0.50	3.60	150.02	61,465	0.0
2025-10-07	3.59	4.09	0.50	3.57	151.17	46,307	0.0
2025-10-08	3.60	4.10	0.50	3.58	152.72	46,307	0.0
2025-10-09	3.60	4.10	0.50	3.60	153.05	46,307	0.0
2025-10-10	3.60	4.10	0.50	3.52	151.94	46,307	0.0
2025-10-11	3.60	4.10	0.50	3.52	151.94	46,307	0.0
2025-10-12	3.60	4.10	0.50	3.52	151.94	46,307	0.0
2025-10-13	3.60	4.10	0.50	3.52	151.94	46,307	0.0
2025-10-14	3.60	4.10	0.50	3.48	151.77	37,166	0.0
2025-10-15	3.60	4.10	0.50	3.50	151.21	37,166	0.0
2025-10-16	3.61	4.11	0.50	3.41	150.75	37,166	0.0
2025-10-17	3.61	4.11	0.50	3.46	150.33	37,166	0.0
2025-10-18	3.61	4.11	0.50	3.46	150.33	37,166	0.0
2025-10-19	3.61	4.11	0.50	3.46	150.33	37,166	0.0
2025-10-20	3.61	4.11	0.50	3.46	150.59	37,166	0.0
2025-10-21	3.61	4.11	0.50	3.45	151.72	70,414	0.0
2025-10-22	3.61	4.11	0.50	3.45	151.79	70,414	0.0
2025-10-23	3.61	4.11	0.50	3.48	152.72	70,414	0.0
2025-10-24	3.61	4.11	0.50	3.48	152.82	70,414	0.0
2025-10-25	3.61	4.11	0.50	3.48	152.82	70,414	0.0
2025-10-26	3.61	4.11	0.50	3.48	152.82	70,414	0.0
2025-10-27	3.62	4.12	0.50	3.48	153.09	70,414	0.0
2025-10-28	3.62	4.12	0.50	3.47	152.14	68,115	0.0
2025-10-29	3.62	4.12	0.50	3.59	151.91	68,115	0.0
2025-10-30	3.37	3.87	0.50	3.61	154.17	68,115	0.0
2025-10-31	3.36	3.86	0.50	3.60	154.05	68,115	0.0
2025-11-01	3.36	3.86	0.50	3.60	154.05	68,115	0.0
2025-11-02	3.36	3.86	0.50	3.60	154.05	68,115	0.0
2025-11-03	3.37	3.87	0.50	3.60	154.13	68,115	0.0
2025-11-04	3.37	3.87	0.50	3.58	153.55	51,265	0.0
2025-11-05	3.37	3.87	0.50	3.63	154.11	51,265	0.0
2025-11-06	3.37	3.87	0.50	3.57	152.97	51,265	0.0
2025-11-07	3.37	3.87	0.50	3.55	153.06	51,265	0.0
2025-11-08	3.37	3.87	0.50	3.55	153.06	51,265	0.0
2025-11-09	3.37	3.87	0.50	3.55	153.06	51,265	0.0
2025-11-10	3.37	3.87	0.50	3.58	153.99	48,476	0.0
2025-11-11	3.37	3.87	0.50	3.58	153.99	48,476	0.0
2025-11-12	3.37	3.87	0.50	3.56	154.64	48,476	0.0
2025-11-13	3.38	3.88	0.50	3.58	154.40	48,476	0.0
2025-11-14	3.38	3.88	0.50	3.62	154.64	48,476	0.0
2025-11-15	3.38	3.88	0.50	3.62	154.64	48,476	0.0
2025-11-16	3.38	3.88	0.50	3.62	154.64	48,476	0.0
2025-11-17	3.38	3.88	0.50	3.60	155.20	48,476	0.0
2025-11-18	3.38	3.88	0.50	3.58	155.44	31,157	0.0
2025-11-19	3.38	3.88	0.50	3.58	156.63	31,157	0.0
2025-11-20	3.38	3.88	0.50	3.55	157.41	31,157	0.0
2025-11-21	3.38	3.88	0.50	3.51	156.58	31,157	0.0
2025-11-22	3.38	3.88	0.50	3.51	156.58	31,157	0.0
2025-11-23	3.38	3.88	0.50	3.51	156.58	31,157	0.0
2025-11-24	3.38	3.88	0.50	3.46	156.94	31,157	0.0
2025-11-25	3.38	3.88	0.50	3.43	156.30	26,517	0.0
2025-11-26	3.38	3.88	0.50	3.45	156.38	26,517	0.0
2025-11-27	3.38	3.88	0.50	3.45	156.38	26,517	0.0
2025-11-28	3.39	3.89	0.50	3.47	156.17	26,517	0.0
2025-11-29	3.39	3.89	0.50	3.47	156.17	26,517	0.0
2025-11-30	3.39	3.89	0.50	3.47	156.17	26,517	0.0
2025-12-01	3.39	3.89	0.50	3.54	155.28	26,517	0.0
2025-12-02	3.39	3.89	0.50	3.51	155.92	36,418	0.0
2025-12-03	3.39	3.89	0.50	3.49	155.17	36,418	0.0
2025-12-04	3.39	3.89	0.50	3.52	154.90	36,418	0.0
2025-12-05	3.39	3.89	0.50	3.56	155.30	36,418	0.0
2025-12-06	3.39	3.89	0.50	3.56	155.30	36,418	0.0
2025-12-07	3.39	3.89	0.50	3.56	155.30	36,418	0.0
2025-12-08	3.39	3.89	0.50	3.57	155.89	36,418	0.0
2025-12-09	3.39	3.89	0.50	3.61	156.85	17,448	0.0
2025-12-10	3.39	3.89	0.50	3.54	156.33	17,448	0.0
2025-12-11	3.14	3.64	0.50	3.52	155.15	17,448	0.0
2025-12-12	3.14	3.64	0.50	3.52	155.81	17,448	0.0
2025-12-13	3.14	3.64	0.50	3.52	155.81	17,448	0.0
2025-12-14	3.14	3.64	0.50	3.52	155.81	17,448	0.0
2025-12-15	3.14	3.64	0.50	3.51	155.29	17,448	0.0
2025-12-16	3.14	3.64	0.50	3.48	154.80	-2,942	0.9
2025-12-17	3.14	3.64	0.50	3.49	155.60	-2,942	0.9
2025-12-18	3.14	3.64	0.50	3.46	155.53	-2,942	0.9
2025-12-19	3.14	3.64	0.50	3.48	157.43	-2,942	0.9
2025-12-20	3.14	3.64	0.50	3.48	157.43	-2,942	0.9
2025-12-21	3.14	3.64	0.50	3.48	157.43	-2,942	0.9
2025-12-22	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.44	156.93	-2,942	0.9
2025-12-23	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.48	156.33	1,223	0.0
2025-12-24	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.47	155.83	1,223	0.0
2025-12-25	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.47	155.83	1,223	0.0
2025-12-26	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.46	156.63	1,223	0.0
2025-12-27	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.46	156.63	1,223	0.0
2025-12-28	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.46	156.63	1,223	0.0
2025-12-29	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.45	156.10	1,223	0.0
2025-12-30	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.45	156.26	14,068	0.0
2025-12-31	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.47	156.80	14,068	0.0
2026-01-01	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.47	156.80	14,068	0.0
2026-01-02	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.47	156.72	14,068	0.0
2026-01-03	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.47	156.72	14,068	0.0
2026-01-04	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.47	156.72	14,068	0.0
2026-01-05	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.46	156.32	14,068	0.0
2026-01-06	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.47	156.70	8,815	0.0
2026-01-07	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.47	156.73	8,815	0.0
2026-01-08	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.49	156.90	8,815	0.0
2026-01-09	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.54	158.07	8,815	0.0
2026-01-10	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.54	158.07	8,815	0.0
2026-01-11	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.54	158.07	8,815	0.0
2026-01-12	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.54	158.15	8,815	0.0
2026-01-13	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.53	159.06	-45,164	13.4
2026-01-14	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.51	158.13	-45,164	13.4
2026-01-15	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.56	158.50	-45,164	13.4
2026-01-16	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.59	158.02	-45,164	13.4
2026-01-17	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.59	158.02	-45,164	13.4
2026-01-18	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.59	158.02	-45,164	13.4
2026-01-19	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.59	158.02	-45,164	13.4
2026-01-20	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.60	157.89	-44,829	13.3
2026-01-21	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.60	158.16	-44,829	13.3
2026-01-22	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.61	158.36	-44,829	13.3
2026-01-23	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.60	157.57	-44,829	13.3
2026-01-24	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.60	157.57	-44,829	13.3
2026-01-25	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.60	157.57	-44,829	13.3
2026-01-26	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.56	153.88	-44,829	13.3
2026-01-27	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.53	153.03	-33,933	10.1
2026-01-28	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.56	153.60	-33,933	10.1
2026-01-29	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.53	152.88	-33,933	10.1
2026-01-30	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.52	154.34	-33,933	10.1
2026-01-31	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.52	154.34	-33,933	10.1
2026-02-01	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.52	154.34	-33,933	10.1
2026-02-02	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.57	155.50	-33,933	10.1
2026-02-03	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.57	155.70	-19,222	5.7
2026-02-04	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.57	156.61	-19,222	5.7
2026-02-05	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.47	156.91	-19,222	5.7
2026-02-06	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.50	157.10	-19,222	5.7
2026-02-07	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.50	157.10	-19,222	5.7
2026-02-08	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.50	157.10	-19,222	5.7
2026-02-09	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.48	156.08	-19,222	5.7
2026-02-10	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.45	154.28	-19,106	5.7
2026-02-11	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.52	152.93	-19,106	5.7
2026-02-12	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.47	152.64	-19,106	5.7
2026-02-13	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.40	152.77	-19,106	5.7
2026-02-14	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.40	152.77	-19,106	5.7
2026-02-15	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.40	152.77	-19,106	5.7
2026-02-16	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.40	152.77	-19,106	5.7
2026-02-17	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.43	153.57	12,955	0.0
2026-02-18	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.47	154.45	12,955	0.0
2026-02-19	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.47	154.96	12,955	0.0
2026-02-20	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.48	154.99	12,955	0.0
2026-02-21	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.48	154.99	12,955	0.0
2026-02-22	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.48	154.99	12,955	0.0
2026-02-23	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.43	154.30	12,955	0.0
2026-02-24	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.43	155.66	11,539	0.0
2026-02-25	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.45	156.30	11,539	0.0
2026-02-26	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.42	156.13	11,539	0.0
2026-02-27	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.38	156.05	11,539	0.0
2026-02-28	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.38	156.05	11,539	0.0
2026-03-01	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.38	156.05	11,539	0.0
2026-03-02	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.47	157.48	11,539	0.0
2026-03-03	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.51	157.69	-16,575	4.9
2026-03-04	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.54	156.93	-16,575	4.9
2026-03-05	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.57	157.58	-16,575	4.9
2026-03-06	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.56	157.64	-16,575	4.9
2026-03-07	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.56	157.64	-16,575	4.9
2026-03-08	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.56	157.64	-16,575	4.9
2026-03-09	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.56	158.08	-16,575	4.9
2026-03-10	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.57	157.60	-41,387	12.3
2026-03-11	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.64	158.83	-41,387	12.3
2026-03-12	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.76	159.21	-41,387	12.3
2026-03-13	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.73	159.54	-41,387	12.3
2026-03-14	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.73	159.54	-41,387	12.3
2026-03-15	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.73	159.54	-41,387	12.3
2026-03-16	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.68	159.30	-41,387	12.3
2026-03-17	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.68	159.03	-67,780	20.1
2026-03-18	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.76	159.48	-67,780	20.1
2026-03-19	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.79	158.19	-67,780	20.1
2026-03-20	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.88	159.26	-67,780	20.1
2026-03-21	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.88	159.26	-67,780	20.1
2026-03-22	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.88	159.26	-67,780	20.1
2026-03-23	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.83	158.70	-67,780	20.1
2026-03-24	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.90	158.90	-62,806	18.7
2026-03-25	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.84	159.20	-62,806	18.7
2026-03-26	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.96	159.65	-62,806	18.7
2026-03-27	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.88	160.16	-62,806	18.7
2026-03-28	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.88	160.16	-62,806	18.7
2026-03-29	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.88	160.16	-62,806	18.7
2026-03-30	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.82	159.49	-62,806	18.7
2026-03-31	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.79	159.08	-72,872	21.6
2026-04-01	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.81	158.63	-72,872	21.6
2026-04-02	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.79	159.34	-72,872	21.6
2026-04-03	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.84	159.64	-72,872	21.6
2026-04-04	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.84	159.64	-72,872	21.6
2026-04-05	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.84	159.64	-72,872	21.6
2026-04-06	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.84	159.71	-72,872	21.6
2026-04-07	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.81	159.90	-93,742	27.9
2026-04-08	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.79	158.39	-93,742	27.9
2026-04-09	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.78	158.87	-93,742	27.9
2026-04-10	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.81	159.22	-93,742	27.9
2026-04-11	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.81	159.22	-93,742	27.9
2026-04-12	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.81	159.22	-93,742	27.9
2026-04-13	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.78	159.74	-93,742	27.9
2026-04-14	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.76	158.91	-83,208	24.7
2026-04-15	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.76	159.02	-83,208	24.7
2026-04-16	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.78	159.07	-83,208	24.7
2026-04-17	2.89	3.64	0.75	3.71	158.10	-83,208	24.7

How to read it

All three panels share one x-axis. Hover anywhere to lock a crosshair across the whole stack and read the four numbers together — that’s the chart’s only real claim, that these series are not independent.

The top panel is the actual USD−JPY rate spread that pays the carry — DFF − BoJ overnight call rate, filled in green, with the 2-year Treasury yield as a forward-looking dotted overlay. The middle panel is USD/JPY: higher = weaker yen = the carry trade is paying. The bottom panel is the CFTC weekly speculative-trader net position in JPY futures — bars below zero mean the crowd is short JPY, i.e. funded in yen and long something else. The deeper the bar, the more crowded the trade.

Click the gold August 5, 2024 pin to zoom the whole stack into a 4-week window around the unwind. Click again to zoom out.

Each step you can see in the green BoJ leg of the spread band corresponds to an actual policy event — 1999’s ZIRP, 2001’s QE launch, the 2006 exit, 2016’s NIRP, the March 2024 NIRP exit, and the July 2024 / January 2025 hike sequence. Those moves are marked as small copper ticks on the date axis at the bottom of the chart; hover any of them for the headline of that day’s decision.

Right now

Carry index

Spread (DFF − BoJ)

2.89%

DFF 3.64% · BoJ 0.75%

USD / JPY

158.1

CFTC JPY net

−83k

Latest observation: April 17, 2026.

August 2024, frame by frame

By mid-July 2024 the speculative net JPY position was at a multi-decade low — call it the most-crowded carry of the entire DEXJPUS series — while the Fed Funds rate sat at 5.33%. Carry was paying ~5% in nominal yield against a yen that had been falling for two and a half years. The Carry Pressure Index pinned at 100.

On July 31 the BoJ surprised with a 15bp hike to 0.25% and a JPY 6T/quarter taper of JGB purchases. USD/JPY dropped from ~152 to ~147 over four sessions. By the August 5 New York open, the unwind was self-reinforcing: the Nikkei fell 12.4% (largest one-day fall since Black Monday 1987), the Nasdaq fell 3.4%, VIX printed an intraday 65, and the CFTC reading two weeks later showed the spec position swinging from record short to net long for the first time since 2021.

The chart’s claim isn’t that the index will perfectly time the next event — only that the configuration that broke in August 2024 (high USD funding × deeply crowded short-JPY positioning) is now legible six weeks before it cracks.

Sources & caveats

Rate spread: The top panel is the actual USD−JPY funding-rate spread, DFF − BoJ overnight call rate. The BoJ leg uses the daily realised average from BoJ’s own MUTAN portal (mutan/d_release/md/<yyyy>/md<yyyymmdd>.xlsx), so the spread updates the same business day a hike takes effect. For history before the daily archive starts, the chart layers in the BIS Central Bank Policy Rates dataset (WS_CBPOL D.JP) — daily BoJ policy rate going back to 1990. Through 2016 the BoJ leg sat near zero so the spread was essentially DFF; since the July 2024 hike to 0.25% (and subsequent moves) you can see it carve roughly 25–50bp off the green area, and the day Ueda speaks the green band steps in real time.
CFTC window: cot_jpy_net is currently only ingested back to June 28, 2022 — the adapter's pagination didn't complete a full archive sweep. Re-running the CFTC ingest should pull the rest of the history. The Aug-5-2024 climax is well inside the visible window either way.
Daily / weekly mix: CFTC reports Tuesday close, published Friday. Between prints we forward-fill the position so the crosshair always has a value; the bar panel only draws actual reported Tuesdays.

Source: FRED · DFF Source: BoJ · MUTAN (daily uncollateralized overnight call rate)Source: BIS · Central Bank Policy Rates (BoJ, historical pre-MUTAN)Source: FRED · DGS2 Source: FRED · DEXJPUS Source: CFTC · Commitments of Traders

Narrative · The Yen Carry Collapse → The long-form companion piece on what actually broke in August 2024 and why the configuration is rebuilding.
Chart · M2 vs S&P 500 → The other side of the same trade — global liquidity proxy.
Chart · Net Liquidity → The Fed-side view: WALCL − TGA − RRP, the variable that cracked in lockstep on Aug 5.

How to read it

Right now

August 2024, frame by frame

Sources & caveats

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