Where Does The Dollar Go?

Module 07 · Layered timeline

State Intervention Tracker

TGA flows, bill-issuance pivots, ESF activity, swap-line drawdowns, SRF usage, and Strategic Bitcoin Reserve disclosures — pinned on one timeline against the S&P 500.

Source: FRED · WTREGEN, SP500, VIXCLS · US Treasury Fiscal Data·As of Apr 24, 2026
Correlation, not causation. Decide for yourself. Pins mark mechanically-detected liquidity actions; the heatmap colors what the S&P 500 did over the next 5 trading days. We do not claim either caused the other.
2,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000S&P 50010203040VIX201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027

5-day forward S&P 500 return, by category

TGA refill · n=23
μ +0.79% · med +0.79%
TGA draw · n=6
μ −0.10% · med +0.63%
Fed swap-line drawdown · n=26
μ +0.35% · med −0.30%
Curated event · n=39
μ +0.33% · med +0.38%
Pins indicate auto-detected interventions: TGA refills/draws ≥ $100B week-over-week from FRED's WTREGEN, bill share > 70% of monthly Treasury issuance (the spec's weekly cadence is pending a higher-frequency ingest source), plus curated events from the editorial annotations layer. Heatmap colors each event's 5-day forward S&P 500 return — green for positive, copper for negative. ESF, SBR, swap-line, and SRF rules are wired and will activate as those series enter the warehouse. Showing 75 of 75 events.
Data table (for screen readers and reference)
State Intervention Tracker — detected events. As of 2026-04-24.Each row is one detected intervention event with its 5-trading-day forward S&P 500 return.
DateCategoryEvent5d SPX (%)
2016-09-21curatedBoJ launches Yield Curve Control0.38
2017-10-01curatedFed begins balance sheet runoff (QT1)0.62
2017-12-27swap-lineSwap-line draw +$12.0B1.54
2018-12-19curatedPowell 'autopilot' QT comment; Q4 sell-off-0.72
2019-07-31curatedFed cuts 25 bps — 'mid-cycle adjustment'-3.23
2019-09-17curatedRepo blowup — SOFR spikes to 5.25%-1.30
2020-03-15curatedEmergency Fed cut to 0% + $700B QE-6.23
2020-03-23curatedUnlimited QE; equity bottom17.40
2020-03-25swap-lineSwap-line draw +$206.0B-0.20
2020-03-27curatedCARES Act signed — $2.2T fiscal-2.08
2020-04-01swap-lineSwap-line draw +$142.5B11.31
2020-04-08tga-refillTGA refill of $269B1.80
2020-04-15tga-refillTGA refill of $191B0.57
2020-04-15swap-lineSwap-line draw +$20.2B0.57
2020-04-22swap-lineSwap-line draw +$31.4B5.01
2020-04-29swap-lineSwap-line draw +$29.2B-3.10
2020-05-06tga-refillTGA refill of $130B-1.00
2020-05-27tga-refillTGA refill of $116B2.86
2020-06-03tga-refillTGA refill of $124B2.15
2020-07-22tga-refillTGA refill of $150B-0.54
2021-03-03tga-drawTGA draw of $100B2.07
2021-03-11curatedAmerican Rescue Plan signed — $1.9T-0.61
2021-03-24tga-drawTGA draw of $211B2.15
2021-06-30curatedRRP usage breaks $1T for first time0.54
2021-09-29tga-drawTGA draw of $110B0.09
2021-10-27tga-refillTGA refill of $130B2.39
2021-11-03curatedFed announces tapering-0.30
2021-12-29tga-refillTGA refill of $127B-1.93
2022-01-05tga-refillTGA refill of $178B0.55
2022-01-26tga-refillTGA refill of $126B5.50
2022-03-16curatedFed begins hiking cycle2.26
2022-04-20tga-refillTGA refill of $164B-6.18
2022-04-27tga-refillTGA refill of $233B2.78
2022-06-01curatedQT2 begins0.35
2022-06-22tga-refillTGA refill of $101B1.57
2022-09-26curatedUK gilt crisis / LDI blowup0.64
2022-12-21tga-refillTGA refill of $104B-0.75
2023-01-19curatedDebt ceiling hit; extraordinary measures begin4.14
2023-01-25tga-refillTGA refill of $153B2.56
2023-03-10curatedSilicon Valley Bank fails1.43
2023-03-15tga-drawTGA draw of $100B1.16
2023-03-19curatedCredit Suisse rescue by UBS0.66
2023-04-26tga-refillTGA refill of $125B0.86
2023-06-05curatedTGA refill begins post debt-ceiling1.52
2023-06-21tga-refillTGA refill of $175B0.26
2023-06-28tga-refillTGA refill of $114B0.79
2023-07-26curatedFed terminal hike — 5.25–5.50%-1.17
2023-09-20tga-refillTGA refill of $119B-2.90
2023-11-01curatedTreasury QRA pivot to bills3.42
2024-03-19curatedBoJ exits NIRP, scraps YCC0.48
2024-04-10curatedMarch CPI hot — first delay of cuts-2.68
2024-04-24tga-refillTGA refill of $145B-1.05
2024-05-01curatedFed slows QT pace3.37
2024-07-31curatedBoJ surprise hike to 0.25%-5.85
2024-08-05curatedYen carry unwind — global equity flash crash3.05
2024-09-18curatedFed cuts 50 bps — first cut since 20201.85
2024-09-24curatedChina stimulus barrage-0.42
2024-12-18curatedHawkish cut — 'measured pace'2.82
2025-01-29tga-refillTGA refill of $107B0.37
2025-02-26tga-drawTGA draw of $109B-1.90
2025-03-05tga-drawTGA draw of $133B-4.16
2025-03-06curatedStrategic Bitcoin Reserve EO signed-3.78
2025-04-16tga-refillTGA refill of $117B3.96
2025-04-23tga-refillTGA refill of $184B3.59
2025-05-16curatedMoody's strips US of last AAA rating-2.61
2025-07-04curatedOne Big Beautiful Bill Act signed0.62
2025-08-01curatedBoJ paces QT taper acceleration2.43
2025-09-17curatedFed resumes cutting cycle0.57
2025-10-29curatedFed announces QT end (Dec 1, 2025)-1.37
2025-12-10curatedFed cuts to 3.75–4.00%; balance sheet stabilises-2.40
2026-01-29curatedBoJ hikes to 0.75%-2.45
2026-02-03curatedReserve management framework refresh0.35
2026-03-18curatedFed signals end of cutting cycle-0.50
2026-04-15curatedQ1 2026 TGA refill ($1.1T target)1.64
2026-04-22tga-refillTGA refill of $255B—

How to read this chart

Each pin is a single mechanically-detected event — a TGA weekly delta beyond ±$100B, a month where bills exceeded 70% of gross issuance, or an editorially-curated milestone like the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve EO. The colored band behind each pin shows what the S&P 500 did over the following 5 trading days. Green means it advanced; copper means it fell. Use the filter pills to isolate one rule at a time.

What this is showing right now

The most recent flag in this tracker is "TGA refill of $255B" on April 22, 2026. The S&P 500 had not yet logged five trading days of follow-through at the time of last refresh. Across the full sample, 23 TGA-side events average +0.79% over their forward week. Read the heatmap, not the headline.

Historical context

Two of the loudest episodes in the post-2020 sample dominate the readout. The June 2023 post-debt-ceiling TGA refill drained roughly a trillion dollars of bank reserves over four months while the equity market kept rallying — a clean counter-example to the "TGA refill = risk-off" reflex. The November 2023 QRA pivot toward bills then absorbed the money-market demand that had been parked in the RRP, and the S&P broke out of its range within weeks. Both episodes are visible as clusters of gold and teal pins.

Where the rules currently stay quiet — ESF, swap-line draws, SRF usage, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve — the curated layer fills in the gaps. SVB and Credit Suisse in March 2023, the August 2024 yen-carry unwind, the March 2025 SBR executive order: these surface as gray pins until their underlying series arrives in the warehouse and the auto-detector takes over. Causation is never claimed; the timeline is offered as a regime filter, not a trade signal.

Sources

SeriesUsed for
Source: WTREGENTreasury General Account weekly balance ($M). Source for TGA refill and TGA draw pins.
Source: SP500S&P 500 daily close — the main line and the reference for every 5-day forward return shown in the heatmap.
Source: VIXCLSCBOE VIX daily close — drawn ghost-thin against the right axis for stress context.
Source: Treasury Fiscal DataMonthly gross issuance of bills, notes, bonds. Powers the bill-share spike rule (> 70% of monthly issuance). Spec calls for a weekly cadence; swapping in a higher-frequency Treasury auction feed is a follow-up.
Curated annotationsEditorial layer for events whose source series isn't yet in the warehouse — ESF balance shifts, Strategic Bitcoin Reserve disclosures, Fed swap-line draws, SRF usage spikes — sourced from primary press releases.

Daily window 2016-04-25 → 2026-04-24; 75 detected events across 8 categories. Refreshes hourly via the FRED + Treasury ingest jobs.

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