Module 02 · Race
M2 vs S&P 500 — and four other lines
Has the stock market just been tracking M2 expansion? Pick a normalize date and watch the lines diverge.
Indexed race · 2026-05-03
Data table (for screen readers and reference)
Showing the most recent 200 rows of 1,636 total. See the methodology page for the full underlying series.
| Week ending | M2 ($T) | WALCL ($T) | S&P 500 | 10y (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-07-10 | — | 8.892 | 3899.38 | 3.09 |
| 2022-07-17 | — | 8.896 | 3863.16 | 2.93 |
| 2022-07-24 | — | 8.899 | 3961.63 | 2.77 |
| 2022-07-31 | — | 8.890 | 4130.29 | 2.67 |
| 2022-08-07 | 21.638 | 8.875 | 4145.19 | 2.83 |
| 2022-08-14 | — | 8.879 | 4280.15 | 2.84 |
| 2022-08-21 | — | 8.850 | 4228.48 | 2.98 |
| 2022-08-28 | — | 8.851 | 4057.66 | 3.04 |
| 2022-09-04 | 21.537 | 8.826 | 3924.26 | 3.20 |
| 2022-09-11 | — | 8.822 | 4067.36 | 3.33 |
| 2022-09-18 | — | 8.833 | 3873.33 | 3.45 |
| 2022-09-25 | — | 8.817 | 3693.23 | 3.69 |
| 2022-10-02 | 21.462 | 8.796 | 3585.62 | 3.83 |
| 2022-10-09 | — | 8.759 | 3639.66 | 3.89 |
| 2022-10-16 | — | 8.759 | 3583.07 | 4.00 |
| 2022-10-23 | — | 8.744 | 3752.75 | 4.21 |
| 2022-10-30 | — | 8.723 | 3901.06 | 4.02 |
| 2022-11-06 | 21.407 | 8.677 | 3770.55 | 4.17 |
| 2022-11-13 | — | 8.679 | 3992.93 | 3.82 |
| 2022-11-20 | — | 8.626 | 3965.34 | 3.82 |
| 2022-11-27 | — | 8.621 | 4026.12 | 3.68 |
| 2022-12-04 | 21.291 | 8.585 | 4071.70 | 3.51 |
| 2022-12-11 | — | 8.583 | 3934.38 | 3.57 |
| 2022-12-18 | — | 8.583 | 3852.36 | 3.48 |
| 2022-12-25 | — | 8.564 | 3844.82 | 3.75 |
| 2023-01-01 | 21.280 | 8.551 | 3839.50 | 3.88 |
| 2023-01-08 | — | 8.507 | 3895.08 | 3.55 |
| 2023-01-15 | — | 8.509 | 3999.09 | 3.49 |
| 2023-01-22 | — | 8.489 | 3972.61 | 3.48 |
| 2023-01-29 | — | 8.471 | 4070.56 | 3.52 |
| 2023-02-05 | 21.244 | 8.434 | 4136.48 | 3.53 |
| 2023-02-12 | — | 8.435 | 4090.46 | 3.74 |
| 2023-02-19 | — | 8.385 | 4079.09 | 3.82 |
| 2023-02-26 | — | 8.382 | 3970.04 | 3.95 |
| 2023-03-05 | 20.947 | 8.340 | 4045.64 | 3.97 |
| 2023-03-12 | — | 8.342 | 3861.59 | 3.70 |
| 2023-03-19 | — | 8.639 | 3916.64 | 3.39 |
| 2023-03-26 | — | 8.734 | 3970.99 | 3.38 |
| 2023-04-02 | 20.761 | 8.706 | 4109.31 | 3.48 |
| 2023-04-09 | — | 8.632 | 4105.02 | 3.39 |
| 2023-04-16 | — | 8.615 | 4137.64 | 3.52 |
| 2023-04-23 | — | 8.593 | 4133.52 | 3.57 |
| 2023-04-30 | — | 8.563 | 4169.48 | 3.44 |
| 2023-05-07 | 20.830 | 8.504 | 4136.25 | 3.44 |
| 2023-05-14 | — | 8.503 | 4124.08 | 3.46 |
| 2023-05-21 | — | 8.457 | 4191.98 | 3.70 |
| 2023-05-28 | — | 8.436 | 4205.45 | 3.80 |
| 2023-06-04 | 20.799 | 8.386 | 4282.37 | 3.69 |
| 2023-06-11 | — | 8.389 | 4298.86 | 3.75 |
| 2023-06-18 | — | 8.388 | 4409.59 | 3.77 |
| 2023-06-25 | — | 8.362 | 4348.33 | 3.74 |
| 2023-07-02 | 20.791 | 8.341 | 4450.38 | 3.81 |
| 2023-07-09 | — | 8.298 | 4398.95 | 4.06 |
| 2023-07-16 | — | 8.297 | 4505.42 | 3.83 |
| 2023-07-23 | — | 8.275 | 4536.34 | 3.84 |
| 2023-07-30 | — | 8.243 | 4582.23 | 3.96 |
| 2023-08-06 | 20.777 | 8.207 | 4478.03 | 4.05 |
| 2023-08-13 | — | 8.208 | 4464.05 | 4.16 |
| 2023-08-20 | — | 8.146 | 4369.71 | 4.26 |
| 2023-08-27 | — | 8.139 | 4405.71 | 4.25 |
| 2023-09-03 | 20.748 | 8.121 | 4515.77 | 4.18 |
| 2023-09-10 | — | 8.101 | 4457.49 | 4.26 |
| 2023-09-17 | — | 8.099 | 4450.32 | 4.33 |
| 2023-09-24 | — | 8.024 | 4320.06 | 4.44 |
| 2023-10-01 | 20.733 | 8.002 | 4288.05 | 4.59 |
| 2023-10-08 | — | 7.956 | 4308.50 | 4.78 |
| 2023-10-15 | — | 7.952 | 4327.78 | 4.63 |
| 2023-10-22 | — | 7.933 | 4224.16 | 4.93 |
| 2023-10-29 | — | 7.908 | 4117.37 | 4.84 |
| 2023-11-05 | 20.746 | 7.867 | 4358.34 | 4.57 |
| 2023-11-12 | — | 7.861 | 4415.24 | 4.61 |
| 2023-11-19 | — | 7.815 | 4514.02 | 4.44 |
| 2023-11-26 | — | 7.811 | 4559.34 | 4.47 |
| 2023-12-03 | 20.778 | 7.796 | 4594.63 | 4.22 |
| 2023-12-10 | — | 7.737 | 4604.37 | 4.23 |
| 2023-12-17 | — | 7.740 | 4719.19 | 3.91 |
| 2023-12-24 | — | 7.724 | 4754.63 | 3.90 |
| 2023-12-31 | — | 7.713 | 4769.83 | 3.88 |
| 2024-01-07 | 20.844 | 7.681 | 4697.24 | 4.05 |
| 2024-01-14 | — | 7.687 | 4783.83 | 3.96 |
| 2024-01-21 | — | 7.674 | 4839.81 | 4.15 |
| 2024-01-28 | — | 7.677 | 4890.97 | 4.15 |
| 2024-02-04 | 20.927 | 7.630 | 4958.61 | 4.03 |
| 2024-02-11 | — | 7.631 | 5026.61 | 4.17 |
| 2024-02-18 | — | 7.634 | 5005.57 | 4.30 |
| 2024-02-25 | — | 7.582 | 5088.80 | 4.26 |
| 2024-03-03 | 20.973 | 7.568 | 5137.08 | 4.19 |
| 2024-03-10 | — | 7.539 | 5123.69 | 4.09 |
| 2024-03-17 | — | 7.542 | 5117.09 | 4.31 |
| 2024-03-24 | — | 7.514 | 5234.18 | 4.22 |
| 2024-03-31 | — | 7.485 | 5254.35 | 4.20 |
| 2024-04-07 | 20.959 | 7.440 | 5204.34 | 4.39 |
| 2024-04-14 | — | 7.438 | 5123.41 | 4.50 |
| 2024-04-21 | — | 7.406 | 4967.23 | 4.62 |
| 2024-04-28 | — | 7.402 | 5099.96 | 4.67 |
| 2024-05-05 | 21.020 | 7.362 | 5127.79 | 4.50 |
| 2024-05-12 | — | 7.353 | 5222.68 | 4.50 |
| 2024-05-19 | — | 7.304 | 5303.27 | 4.42 |
| 2024-05-26 | — | 7.300 | 5304.72 | 4.46 |
| 2024-06-02 | 21.068 | 7.284 | 5277.51 | 4.51 |
| 2024-06-09 | — | 7.256 | 5346.99 | 4.43 |
| 2024-06-16 | — | 7.259 | 5431.60 | 4.20 |
| 2024-06-23 | — | 7.253 | 5464.62 | 4.25 |
| 2024-06-30 | — | 7.231 | 5460.48 | 4.36 |
| 2024-07-07 | 21.094 | 7.222 | 5567.19 | 4.28 |
| 2024-07-14 | — | 7.224 | 5615.35 | 4.18 |
| 2024-07-21 | — | 7.208 | 5505.00 | 4.25 |
| 2024-07-28 | — | 7.205 | 5459.10 | 4.20 |
| 2024-08-04 | 21.186 | 7.178 | 5346.56 | 3.80 |
| 2024-08-11 | — | 7.175 | 5344.16 | 3.94 |
| 2024-08-18 | — | 7.178 | 5554.25 | 3.89 |
| 2024-08-25 | — | 7.140 | 5634.61 | 3.81 |
| 2024-09-01 | 21.269 | 7.123 | 5648.40 | 3.91 |
| 2024-09-08 | — | 7.113 | 5408.42 | 3.72 |
| 2024-09-15 | — | 7.115 | 5626.02 | 3.66 |
| 2024-09-22 | — | 7.109 | 5702.55 | 3.73 |
| 2024-09-29 | — | 7.080 | 5738.17 | 3.75 |
| 2024-10-06 | 21.331 | 7.047 | 5751.07 | 3.98 |
| 2024-10-13 | — | 7.047 | 5815.03 | 4.08 |
| 2024-10-20 | — | 7.039 | 5864.67 | 4.08 |
| 2024-10-27 | — | 7.029 | 5808.12 | 4.25 |
| 2024-11-03 | 21.452 | 7.013 | 5728.80 | 4.37 |
| 2024-11-10 | — | 6.994 | 5995.54 | 4.30 |
| 2024-11-17 | — | 6.967 | 5870.62 | 4.43 |
| 2024-11-24 | — | 6.924 | 5969.34 | 4.41 |
| 2024-12-01 | 21.485 | 6.905 | 6032.38 | 4.18 |
| 2024-12-08 | — | 6.896 | 6090.27 | 4.15 |
| 2024-12-15 | — | 6.897 | 6051.09 | 4.40 |
| 2024-12-22 | — | 6.889 | 5930.85 | 4.52 |
| 2024-12-29 | — | 6.886 | 5970.84 | 4.62 |
| 2025-01-05 | 21.548 | 6.852 | 5942.47 | 4.60 |
| 2025-01-12 | — | 6.854 | 5827.04 | 4.77 |
| 2025-01-19 | — | 6.834 | 5996.66 | 4.61 |
| 2025-01-26 | — | 6.832 | 6101.24 | 4.63 |
| 2025-02-02 | 21.613 | 6.818 | 6040.53 | 4.58 |
| 2025-02-09 | — | 6.811 | 6025.99 | 4.49 |
| 2025-02-16 | — | 6.814 | 6114.63 | 4.47 |
| 2025-02-23 | — | 6.782 | 6013.13 | 4.42 |
| 2025-03-02 | 21.694 | 6.766 | 5954.50 | 4.24 |
| 2025-03-09 | — | 6.757 | 5770.20 | 4.32 |
| 2025-03-16 | — | 6.760 | 5638.94 | 4.31 |
| 2025-03-23 | — | 6.756 | 5667.56 | 4.25 |
| 2025-03-30 | — | 6.740 | 5580.94 | 4.27 |
| 2025-04-06 | 21.776 | 6.723 | 5074.08 | 4.01 |
| 2025-04-13 | — | 6.727 | 5363.36 | 4.48 |
| 2025-04-20 | — | 6.727 | 5282.70 | 4.34 |
| 2025-04-27 | — | 6.727 | 5525.21 | 4.29 |
| 2025-05-04 | 21.834 | 6.709 | 5686.67 | 4.33 |
| 2025-05-11 | — | 6.711 | 5659.91 | 4.37 |
| 2025-05-18 | — | 6.713 | 5958.38 | 4.43 |
| 2025-05-25 | — | 6.689 | 5802.82 | 4.51 |
| 2025-06-01 | 21.939 | 6.673 | 5911.69 | 4.41 |
| 2025-06-08 | — | 6.673 | 6000.36 | 4.51 |
| 2025-06-15 | — | 6.677 | 5976.97 | 4.41 |
| 2025-06-22 | — | 6.681 | 5967.84 | 4.38 |
| 2025-06-29 | — | 6.662 | 6173.07 | 4.29 |
| 2025-07-06 | 22.020 | 6.660 | 6279.35 | 4.35 |
| 2025-07-13 | — | 6.662 | 6259.75 | 4.43 |
| 2025-07-20 | — | 6.659 | 6296.79 | 4.44 |
| 2025-07-27 | — | 6.658 | 6388.64 | 4.40 |
| 2025-08-03 | 22.087 | 6.643 | 6238.01 | 4.23 |
| 2025-08-10 | — | 6.641 | 6389.45 | 4.27 |
| 2025-08-17 | — | 6.644 | 6449.80 | 4.33 |
| 2025-08-24 | — | 6.618 | 6466.91 | 4.26 |
| 2025-08-31 | — | 6.603 | 6460.26 | 4.23 |
| 2025-09-07 | 22.170 | 6.602 | 6481.50 | 4.10 |
| 2025-09-14 | — | 6.606 | 6584.29 | 4.06 |
| 2025-09-21 | — | 6.609 | 6664.36 | 4.14 |
| 2025-09-28 | — | 6.608 | 6643.70 | 4.20 |
| 2025-10-05 | 22.250 | 6.587 | 6715.79 | 4.13 |
| 2025-10-12 | — | 6.591 | 6552.51 | 4.05 |
| 2025-10-19 | — | 6.596 | 6664.01 | 4.02 |
| 2025-10-26 | — | 6.590 | 6791.69 | 4.02 |
| 2025-11-02 | 22.297 | 6.587 | 6840.20 | 4.11 |
| 2025-11-09 | — | 6.573 | 6728.80 | 4.11 |
| 2025-11-16 | — | 6.580 | 6734.11 | 4.14 |
| 2025-11-23 | — | 6.555 | 6602.99 | 4.06 |
| 2025-11-30 | — | 6.552 | 6849.09 | 4.02 |
| 2025-12-07 | 22.387 | 6.536 | 6870.40 | 4.14 |
| 2025-12-14 | — | 6.539 | 6827.41 | 4.19 |
| 2025-12-21 | — | 6.557 | 6834.50 | 4.16 |
| 2025-12-28 | — | 6.581 | 6929.94 | 4.14 |
| 2026-01-04 | 22.469 | 6.641 | 6858.47 | 4.19 |
| 2026-01-11 | — | 6.574 | 6966.28 | 4.18 |
| 2026-01-18 | — | 6.582 | 6940.01 | 4.24 |
| 2026-01-25 | — | 6.585 | 6915.61 | 4.24 |
| 2026-02-01 | 22.667 | 6.588 | 6939.03 | 4.26 |
| 2026-02-08 | — | 6.606 | 6932.30 | 4.22 |
| 2026-02-15 | — | 6.622 | 6836.17 | 4.04 |
| 2026-02-22 | — | 6.613 | 6909.51 | 4.08 |
| 2026-03-01 | — | 6.614 | 6878.88 | 3.97 |
| 2026-03-08 | — | 6.629 | 6740.02 | 4.15 |
| 2026-03-15 | — | 6.646 | 6632.19 | 4.28 |
| 2026-03-22 | — | 6.656 | 6506.48 | 4.39 |
| 2026-03-29 | — | 6.657 | 6368.85 | 4.44 |
| 2026-04-05 | — | 6.675 | 6582.69 | 4.35 |
| 2026-04-12 | — | 6.694 | 6816.89 | 4.31 |
| 2026-04-19 | — | 6.706 | 7126.06 | 4.26 |
| 2026-04-26 | — | 6.707 | 7165.08 | 4.34 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | — | — | — |
How to read this
Every line is rebased to 100 on the normalize date (default: 1 January 2000). When two lines diverge, the steeper one has compounded faster from that base — that’s what "race"means. Drag the scrubber or press play to redraw the lines from the left in chronological order; pause anywhere; hover to read the indexed value and the raw value for every series at that week. Toggle the y-axis between linear (best for the first decade) and log (best for fitting Bitcoin and a flat 10-year yield on the same canvas). Pick a different normalize date to ask different questions: rebase to 2009 and watch the post-QE bull market start at zero; rebase to 2020-03-23 and ask whether the COVID rally did anything more than catch up to M2.
What this is showing right now
Since Jan 2000, M2 money supply has multiplied 4.86× (486 on a 100 base) while the S&P 500 has multiplied 3.47× (347 on a 100 base, indexed from May 2016). Bitcoin sits at 17,407 (indexed from May 2016); gold at 366, WALCL at 932, 10Y yield at 67.
- Bitcoin17407
- Fed Total Assets932
- M2 Money Stock486
- Gold366
- S&P 500347
- 10-Year Treasury67
Historical context
In January 2000, the Nasdaq was three months from peaking, M2 was $4.6 trillion, and the Fed’s balance sheet was a sleepy $700 billion. Then dot-com unwound, 9/11 forced an emergency cycle of cuts, and Greenspan parked the policy rate at 1% for most of 2003–2004. Money supply quietly compounded.
QE1 (Nov 2008) is the place the M2 and SP500 lines visibly decouple from boring linear growth. QE2, Operation Twist, QE3 — each one widens the gap between "what the central bank holds"(WALCL) and "what the broad money supply is doing" (M2). The S&P drafts off both. Then COVID: in nine months from March 2020 the Fed nearly doubled WALCL and M2 jumped ~25% in a year — the biggest single peacetime expansion of US money on this chart.
From mid-2022 the Fed runs QT and M2 contracts year-over-year for the first time since the 1930s; WALCL falls but stays well above its pre-COVID level. The S&P briefly tracks the decline, then races ahead again on AI capex narratives. Bitcoin, indexed from its July-2010 Mt.Gox-era starting point, runs a fundamentally different race — closer to early-stage equity than to a currency, and on a log axis its ~10⁶× rebase reading tells you why. Gold, the "other money," runs a third race: slow, steady, tilted upward into geopolitical fractures. The 10-year yield is the metronome — when it spikes, every other line stutters.
The default 2000-baseline frame is the "did the market just track money supply?" question. Pick a different rebase date and you’re asking a different question entirely. That’s the point.
Sources & methodology
- FRED · M2SL — M2 Money Stock (loaded as
M2SL) - FRED · WALCL — Fed Total Assets (loaded as
WALCL) - FRED · SP500 — S&P 500 (loaded as
SP500) - Coin Metrics · BTC PriceUSD (daily reference rate) — Bitcoin (loaded as
btcusd) - LBMA · Gold Price PM Fix (USD/oz) — Gold (loaded as
gc_f) - FRED · DGS10 — 10-Year Treasury (loaded as
DGS10)
All series are resampled to weekly (Sunday-end) by taking the last observation in each ISO week, then indexed to 100 at the user-selected normalize date. Series whose first observation post-dates the normalize date are indexed from their first available week; the line simply doesn’t exist before that point on the chart. Gold is sourced from the LBMA Gold Price PM Fix (USD/oz, full daily history back to 1968) — the same auction that FRED’s discontinued GOLDAMGBD228NLBM mirrored before it was retired. Bitcoin is sourced from Coin Metrics’ community-tier PriceUSD reference rate (daily, full history back to 2010-07-18 — the first full UTC day after Mt.Gox opened on 2010-07-17), which replaces the ~April 2016 floor imposed by Stooq/Yahoo’s 10-year window so the Bitcoin line begins alongside M2 and Gold instead of jumping in mid-2016. Stooq remains a fallback. Indexing is unit-agnostic — a ratio is a ratio — so the y-axis label is the same for all six lines.